Combining multiple Bayesian data analyses in a sequential framework for quantitative fisheries stock assessment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a sequential Bayesian framework for quantitative fisheries stock assessment that relies on a wide range of fisheries-dependent and -independent data and information. The presented methodology combines information from multiple Bayesian data analyses through the incorporation of the joint posterior probability density functions (pdfs) in subsequent analyses, either as informative prior pdfs or as additional likelihood contributions. Different practical strategies are presented for minimising any loss of information between analyses. Using this methodology, the final stock assessment model used for the provision of the management advice can be kept relatively simple, despite the dependence on a large variety of data and other information. This methodology is illustrated for the assessment of the mixed-stock fishery for four wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks in the northern Baltic Sea. The incorporation of different data and information results in a considerable update of previously available smolt abundance and smolt production capacity estimates by substantially reducing the associated uncertainty. The methodology also allows, for the first time, the estimation of stock–recruit functions for the different salmon stocks.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.038 | 0.067 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".