Changes in New Zealand pan evaporation since the 1970s
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Several previous studies have reported declines in pan evaporation rate throughout the Northern Hemisphere of about 2–4 mm a−2 for various periods since the 1950s. A recent analysis of Australian pan evaporation reported a similar decline and raises the possibility that part of the phenomenon may be related to the greenhouse effect. To assess that possibility, one needs to know whether the decline in evaporative demand is happening in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. As a first step to addressing the latter question, we examined the trend in pan evaporation at 19 New Zealand sites. We found statistically significant declines in pan evaporation rate at 6 of the 19 sites. There were no sites with statistically significant increases in pan evaporation. When averaged across all 19 sites, the decline in pan evaporation rate was roughly 2 mm a−2 (i.e. mm per annum per annum) since the 1970s. Over a 30-year period, this is equivalent to a decline of about 60 mm a−1 in annual pan evaporation. These results are generally consistent with those reported throughout the Northern Hemisphere and in Australia. We conclude that the trend for decreasing evaporative demand previously reported throughout the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surface may also be widespread in the Southern Hemisphere. This may be, in part, a greenhouse-related phenomenon. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it