Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Because rates of evolution and species divergence times cannot be estimated directly from molecular data, all current dating methods require that specific assumptions be made before inferring any divergence time. These assumptions typically bear either on rates of molecular evolution (molecular clock hypothesis, local clocks models) or on both rates and times (penalized likelihood, Bayesian methods). However, most of these assumptions can affect estimated dates, oftentimes because they underestimate large amounts of rate change. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A significant modification to a recently proposed ad hoc rate-smoothing algorithm is described, in which local molecular clocks are automatically placed on a phylogeny. This modification makes use of hybrid approaches that borrow from recent theoretical developments in microarray data analysis. An ad hoc integration of phylogenetic uncertainty under these local clock models is also described. The performance and accuracy of the new methods are evaluated by reanalyzing three published data sets. CONCLUSIONS: It is shown that the new maximum likelihood hybrid methods can perform better than penalized likelihood and almost as well as uncorrelated Bayesian models. However, the new methods still tend to underestimate the actual amount of rate change. This work demonstrates the difficulty of estimating divergence times using local molecular clocks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".