Development and Validation of a Highly Sensitive Urine-Based Test to Identify Patients with Colonic Adenomatous Polyps
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Adenomatous polyps are precursors of colorectal cancer; their detection and removal is the goal of colon cancer screening programs. However, fecal-based methods identify patients with adenomatous polyps with low levels of sensitivity. The aim or this study was to develop a highly accurate, prototypic, proof-of-concept, spot urine-based diagnostic test using metabolomic technology to distinguish persons with adenomatous polyps from those without polyps. METHODS: Prospective urine and stool samples were collected from 876 participants undergoing colonoscopy examination in a colon cancer screening program, from April 2008 to October 2009 at the University of Alberta. Colonoscopy reference standard identified 633 participants with no colonic polyps and 243 with colonic adenomatous polyps. One-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance spectra of urine metabolites were analyzed to define a diagnostic metabolomic profile for colonic adenomas. A urine metabolomic diagnostic test for colonic adenomatous polyps was established using 67% of the samples (un-blinded training set) and validated using the other 33% of the samples (blinded testing set). The urine metabolomic diagnostic test's specificity and sensitivity were compared with those of fecal-based tests. RESULTS: Using a two-component, orthogonal, partial least-squares model of the metabolomic profile, the un-blinded training set identified patients with colonic adenomatous polyps with 88.9% sensitivity and 50.2% specificity. Validation using the blinded testing set confirmed sensitivity and specificity values of 82.7% and 51.2%, respectively. Sensitivities of fecal-based tests to identify colonic adenomas ranged from 2.5 to 11.9%. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a proof-of-concept spot urine-based metabolomic diagnostic test that identifies patients with colonic adenomatous polyps with a greater level of sensitivity (83%) than fecal-based tests.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it