REDUCED POPULATION GROWTH OF GRAY SEALS AT SABLE ISLAND: EVIDENCE FROM PUP PRODUCTION AND AGE OF PRIMIPARITY
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Pup production on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, has been increasing exponentially since the early 1960s and by 1997 Sable Island was the largest gray seal colony worldwide. Using an aerial photographic survey, as in previous years, we estimated pup production in January 2004 to determine if this exponential rate of increase had continued. A total of 33,268 pups was counted on the color positives. When corrected for the proportion pups missed on the imagery (1.106 for the 12th; 1.527 on the 13th), the proportion of pups that died prior to the survey (0.031), and the proportion of pups born before the survey (east colony 0.966, west colony 0.962), estimated total pup production was 41,500 with SE = 4,381. The 2004 estimate indicates that pup production on Sable Island has continued to increase, but suggests that the rate of increase ( r ) may have declined (0.070 compared to previous 0.128). Females from the 1998–2000 cohorts were about 16 times less likely to give birth for the first time at age 4 yr and more than twice as likely at age 6 yr compared to those in the mid‐late 1980s. The new estimate of pup production and observed changes in age of primiparity provide the first indication of changes in vital rates of this population. However, additional estimates of pup production and vital rates are needed to confirm this conclusion and to investigate the underlying mechanisms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it