Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2006
Why is this work in the frame?
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
- Teacher spread
- 0.252 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive‐microwave data for the 28 years 1979–2006 yields an overall negative trend of −45,100 ± 4,600 km 2 /a (−3.7 ± 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages, the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of −10,600 ± 2,800 km 2 /a (−7.4 ± 2.0%/decade) and −10,100 ± 2,200 km 2 /a (−1.5 ± 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of −8000 ± 2000 km 2 /a (−9.0 ± 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of −7000 ± 1400 km 2 /a (−9.3 ± 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of −4500 ± 900 km 2 /a (−5.3 ± 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28‐year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.
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The record
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
- Topic
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Field
- Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- —
- Keywords
- BayArcticSea iceOceanographyArctic ice packClimatologyArctic sea ice declineArchipelagoGeologyNorthern HemispherePhysical geographyGeographyAntarctic sea ice
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes