Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract When psychologists are asked to estimate the probability that their clinical judgments are correct, they often reveal an overconfidence effect. In an effort to identify sources of unwarranted confidence in clinical judgment, this study examined the relationship between four different inferential biases (dispositionism, confirmationism, data‐search truncation, and narrow problem construal) and diagnostic confidence in the context of a psychological assessment task. Thirty‐six clinicians were individually presented a written client case‐file to read and clinically interpret aloud. Analyses of participants' verbal protocols revealed that dispositionism alone accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in psychodiagnostic confidence scores. These results indicate that dispositionally‐driven assessments tend to be expressed with the highest levels of confidence. The roles that professional psychology and psychology in general play in propagating this bias are considered. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.036 | 0.010 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".