Rates and uncertainties on seismic moment and deformation in eastern Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
On the basis of earthquake statistics from the Canadian earthquake hazard model, we estimate the rates of seismic moment and deformation in seismic zones of eastern Canada. We use a logic tree approach to derive median values and 66% confidence intervals for models based on earthquake cluster distributions and geological and tectonic structures. Typical moment rates are low, (0.1–1) × 1017 N m yr−1, equivalent to a magnitude Mw = 7 earthquake every 350–3500 years in each seismic zone. In a few zones, such as Baffin Bay, moment rates reach (2–10) × 1017 N m yr−1. Expressed in terms of relative velocity between zone boundaries, seismic deformation rates are typically 0.2–0.5 mm yr−1. For a few regions of high seismicity, such as Baffin Bay, Charlevoix, or Grand Banks, the relative velocities reach 1–2 mm yr−1. Strain rates are typical of the intraplate environment (10−13–10−10 yr−1), with values locally as high as 10−8 yr−1. These rates give some insight into geodynamic aspects of the northeastern North America plate. Assuming that the seismic deformation rates represent long‐term deformation of the lithosphere, they provide some constraint to the amplitude and variability of intraplate strain. On a shorter timescale, seismic strain rates can be compared with postglacial rebound predictions and might help constrain some aspects of these models. Because they reflect the seismic energy released over the last few hundred years, our estimates, in combination with geodetic measurements, can also help constrain models of earthquake dynamics in eastern North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".