Is the closed‐crown boreal forest resilient after successive stand disturbances? A quantitative demonstration from a case study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Question Recent studies revealed by indirect evidence that lichen–spruce woodlands in the closed‐crown boreal forest are an alternative stable state of black spruce–feathermoss stands. This paper aims to demonstrate and quantify black spruce forest cover regression following successive wildfire events in the closed‐crown forest zone during the 20th century. A case study in north‐eastern N orth A merican closed‐crown forest zone is presented. Location The study area is at the centre of the closed‐crown boreal forest zone of eastern C anada (49°59′ N, 71°59′ W). Methods A burned area of 25 ha was selected in which three tree cohorts were visible. The first cohort contains partly buried trunks and stumps of a stand destroyed by a forest fire in 1920, the second contains standing dead trees from a 1995 forest fire and the third contains seedlings established after the 1995 fire. Fires were dated by scar analyses of living trees at the edge of the site. An array of sample plots was established in autumn 1997 to evaluate each cohort in terms of stocking and tree density. Results Black spruce stocking decreased significantly between cohorts, from 43.5% in C ohort 1 (all coniferous trees) to 25.6% in C ohort 2 and 11.5% in C ohort 3 (2011). Jack pine showed an inverse tendency, from 0% in C ohort 1 (not determined) to 0% in C ohort 2 and 3.8% in C ohort 3. Black spruce stems per hectare also dropped significantly from a minimum of 1322 in C ohort 1 to 1088 in C ohort 2 and 976 in C ohort 3. Conclusions This study is the first quantitative demonstration that lichen–spruce woodlands in the closed‐crown boreal forest zone are an alternative stable state of black spruce–feathermoss stands. Stocking levels and densities markedly declined after each of the two fires (1920 and 1995) that both occurred after spruce budworm outbreaks (1910 and 1980) and are most likely responsible for the shift from a closed‐crown to an open woodland.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".