Prediction of surface currents and drifter trajectories on the inner Scotian Shelf
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The predictive skill of a simple model of surface flow on the Scotian Shelf is assessed using oceanographic data collected in February 1996. The model is forced by wind stress, water density, and sea level along the open boundaries of the model domain. The skill of the model with respect to subtidal variations of alongshore current and bottom pressure is quantified by the ratio γ 2 = Var( O − P )/Var( O ), where Var( O − P ) and Var( O ) are the variance of the prediction errors and observations, respectively. Skill is highest for bottom pressure (γ 2 = 0.2) followed, in order, by cross‐shelf gradients in bottom pressure (γ 2 = 0.5), horizontally averaged currents (0.4 < γ 2 < 0.7), and currents at individual current meters (0.6 < γ 2 < 1.4). The skill of the model with respect to drifter position is quantified by the search radius, centered on the predicted drifter position, that ensures a 50% chance of locating the drifter. Skill varies significantly with time but is generally highest when the drifter motion is strongest. We conclude with a comparison of the performance of the model against predictions based on the release point of the drifters and the operational scheme presently used to guide marine search and rescue in this region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".