Risk of Readmission and Emergency Surgery Following Nonoperative Management of Colonic Diverticulitis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To characterize the clinical course of patients with diverticulitis after nonoperative management and determine factors associated with readmission and subsequent emergency surgery. BACKGROUND: Clinical course of this disease remains poorly understood; indications for elective colectomy are unclear. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients managed nonoperatively after a first episode of diverticulitis in Ontario, Canada (2002-2012). Time-to-event analysis and Fine and Gray multivariable regression were used to characterize the risks of readmission and emergency surgery for diverticulitis, accounting for death and elective colectomy as competing events. RESULTS: A total of 14,124 patients were followed for a median of 3.9 years (maximum 10, interquartile range: 1.7-6.4). Five-year cumulative incidence was 9.0% for readmission, 1.9% for emergency surgery, and 14.1% for all-cause mortality. Patients younger than 50 years had higher incidence of readmission than patients aged 50 years and older (10.5% vs 8.4%; P < 0.001) but not emergency surgery (1.8% vs 2.0%; P = 0.52). Patients with complicated disease (abscess, perforation) were at increased risk of readmission than those with uncomplicated disease (12.0% vs 8.2%; P < 0.001), as well as increased risk of emergency surgery (4.3% vs 1.4%, P < 0.001). In multivariable regression, complicated disease and number of prior admissions were associated with increased risk of emergency surgery, yet age less than 50 years was not. Risks associated with complicated disease were nonproportional over time, being highest immediately after discharge and decreasing thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Absolute risks of readmission and emergency surgery are low after nonoperative management of diverticulitis, providing evidence for the practice of deferring colectomy for patients without persistent symptoms or multiple recurrences.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it