A fire history from tree rings in a high-elevation forest of Rocky Mountain National Park
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Historical fire patterns in a subalpine forest of Rocky Mountain National Park were quantified from an analysis of forest stand ages and fire-scarred trees. A comparatively detailed sample of 3461 tree cores and 212 fire scars was collected from a 9200-ha study area north of Estes Park, Colorado. A total of 41 fire events were identified in the record. Annually precise fire dates, beginning in 1533, include 22 high-severity crown fires, 7 low-severity surface fires, and 8 mixed-severity events with both surface and crown fire components. Fire rotation was estimated for both surface fires (7587 years) and crown fires (346 years). Fire rotation did not appear to vary with fuel characteristics associated with topographical differences in the study area. Fires larger than 300 ha were few, but they determined a large proportion of the area burned since 1700 and were significantly correlated with a reconstructed index of summer drought. Low fire activity in the 20th century was associated with decreased severity and frequency of drought episodes. Long fire rotations preclude definitive conclusions regarding the effects of fire suppression in the 20th century, but relationships between high-severity fires, fuels, and drought suggest that climatic variability remains the primary influence on fire cycles in high-elevation ecosystems of the southern Rocky Mountains.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".