Suspected inflammatory bowel disease-the clinical and economic impact of competing diagnostic strategies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The suspicion of IBD in patients presenting with nonspecific abdominal pain and diarrhea results in the extensive use of invasive diagnostic testing in patients likely to have a functional GI disorder. Noninvasive serodiagnostic tests, however, accurately identify IBD and may serve as effective screening tools. The objective of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of initial serodiagnostic screening followed by standard invasive testing, compared to standard invasive testing alone, in patients presenting with uninvestigated symptoms suggestive of IBD. METHODS: Decision analysis was performed to compare the costs and outcomes of competing diagnostic strategies. Probability estimates were derived from the medical literature and expert opinion. Costs estimates were obtained from the Medicare Fee schedule and the cost-analysis was done from a third party payer perspective. The target population was patients with uninvestigated symptoms suggestive of IBD. The outcome measure was cost per correct diagnosis in competing strategies and was assessed at 1 yr. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, the serodiagnostic strategies were dominant; they were less costly and more accurate than the standard invasive strategies. Sequential serodiagnostic strategies resulted in the largest cost savings ($550 per average patient) with an average cost per correct diagnosis of $1640 compared to $2188 for standard invasive testing. Cost savings were attributable to a 39% reduction in the use of invasive tests. The results were robust to varying model estimates over prespecified ranges in the sensitivity analyses. When costs of invasive testing are reduced by 80% or the prevalence of IBD is at least 83%, serodiagnostic strategies are no longer the most cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Initial serodiagnostic screening strategies may represent a cost-effective alternative to standard invasive diagnostic strategies. The economic benefits seem to be achieved by avoiding invasive evaluations in patients without IBD. Confirmation of these findings in a prospective comparative trial seems to be warranted.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.016 | 0.054 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".