Population Aging in Canada and Japan: Implications for Labour Force and Career Patterns
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The scenario of population aging in developed countries has been discussed mainly in terms of spiralling pension and health care costs. With below‐replacement‐level fertility rates in most of the developed world, many countries face a stagnant or slow growing labour supply. During the late 1980s in North America, business writers were warning of the coming labour force shortage as the baby bust cohort began to enter the labour force. Despite a slower growing labour force throughout the 1990s, the matter of shortages was a non‐issue for Canada during the early 1990s recession with slow growing labour demand during most of the decade. Thus, demand for labour, though difficult to predict, is an important factor that will affect the aging labour force. Another factor is that of career patterns. In North America, career patterns of the immediate three postwar decades (lifelong linear careers) are giving way to more varied career patterns with delayering, rising credentialism, and lifelong learning as issues that are confronting both employers and employees. This paper examines labour force and career pattern issues with respect to Canada and Japan. Comparisons are drawn between demographic patterns and career patterns of the two countries. Résumé On a discuté du scénario du vieillissement de la population dans les pays développés principalement par rapport à la montée enfièvre des coûts de pension ainsi que ceux associés aux soins de santé. Avec des taux defécon‐dité inférieurs au seuil de renouvellement des générations dans la plupart des pays en voie de développement, plusieurs pays font face à une croissance ralentie ou stagnante de l'off re de main‐d'oeuvre. Vers la fin des années 1980 en Amérique du Nord, les chroniqueurs en affaires nous allertaient à la «penurie de main‐d'oeuvre» quand la génération issue de l'effrondre‐ment de la natalité rentrerait sur le marché du travail. Malgré la croissance ralentie de l'offre de main‐d'oeuvre durant les années 1990, la question de penurie ne figurait pas au Canada pendant la recession au début des années 1990 car la demande de main‐d'oeuvre était ralentie pendant la plupart de la décennie. Donc, la demande de main‐d'oeuvre, bien que difficile à prédire, est unfacteur important influant sur une main‐d'oeuvre vieillissante. Un autre facteur est celui de l'orientation des carrières. En Amérique du Nord, l'orientation des carrières des trois décennies d'après‐guerre (carrières linéaires continues) cèdent le passage à une orientation des carrières plus variée entraînant des questions de déstratification, diplômanie accroissante, et formation permanente affrontant les employés et les employeurs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".