Solar illumination as cause of the equinoctial preference for geomagnetic activity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Geomagnetic and auroral activity vary seasonally with maxima at equinoxes, as has been known for more than a century. The cause remains under debate. The angle made by the Earth's dipole axis with the typical direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) can explain a portion (about 17%) of the effect. To explain the majority of the equinoctial effect, we suggest that geomagnetic activity peaks when the nightside auroral zones of both hemispheres are in darkness, as happens at equinox. Under such conditions, no conducting path exists in the ionosphere to complete the currents required by solar wind‐magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling, and geomagnetic disturbances maximize. To test this theory, the Universal Time (UT) variation of geomagnetic activity was explored. As our model predicts, geomagnetic activity in December, measured by the Am index, evinces a deep minimum around 0300–0600 UT when the auroral oval of both hemispheres are in darkness and a maximum around 1500–1600 UT when the southern nightside oval is sunlit. In June, complementary effects are predicted and observed. Previous studies using the AE index have shown more ambiguous results. Here we show that if AE is resolved into the AU and AL components, the discrepancy disappears, with the AL component following the same pattern as does Am. We thus conclude that the intensity of global geomagnetic activity is well ordered by whether the nightside auroral oval is sunlit in one hemisphere or neither.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".