Avian cholera, post‐hatching survival and selection on hatch characteristics in a long‐lived bird, the common eider <i>Somateria mollisima</i>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Infectious diseases can have dramatic impacts on animal population dynamics, but how they influence vital rates remains understudied. We took advantage of the appearance of an avian cholera epizootic in an arctic colony of common eiders Somateria mollissima to study variation in juvenile survival and selection on hatch characteristics in relation to this highly infectious disease. Avian cholera is one of the most important infectious diseases affecting wild birds and is thought to primarily affect adult survival. Here, we show that avian cholera was associated with a 90% decline in duckling survival, leading to almost zero recruitment. Before the cholera outbreak, there was significant stabilizing selection on hatching date and significant positive directional selection on hatching mass. During cholera outbreaks, selection on hatch characteristics was no longer significant. These results were based on a low sample of surviving ducklings in cholera years, but suggested that date and mass at hatching did no longer affect duckling survival in the presence of cholera. These effects of avian cholera on post‐hatching survival were likely not only the consequence of the disease per se , but also a consequence of an increase in predation rates that followed the emergence of avian cholera. Our results emphasize the dramatic direct and indirect impacts that infectious disease can have on vital rates, and thus population dynamics.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".