A model for categorical length data from groundfish surveys
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An extension of the multinomial model of counts is presented to account for overdispersion and different correlation structure. Such models are needed in biological applications such as the analysis of length measurements from surveys of heterogeneous populations used for assessments of marine resources. One of the goals of such a survey is to estimate the length distribution of each species within a particular area. Using data on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in Icelandic waters, it is demonstrated that the assumptions used in practice for categorical length data are seriously violated. The length data on cod exhibit variances that are larger than those of the standard multinomial model and correlation coefficients that are greater than those of the Dirichlet-multinomial model. To alleviate these problems, a hierarchical model based on the multinomial distribution and the logistically transformed multivariate Gaussian distribution is proposed. It is illustrated that this model captures the complex covariance structure of the data. The parameters in the models are estimated using a Bayesian estimation procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it