Time series analysis of ultraviolet B radiation and type 1 diabetes in Newfoundland
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) has been previously been associated with decreased levels of vitamin D. This study investigates the temporal association between average daily ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance and T1DM in Newfoundland. METHODS: A complete list of patients diagnosed with T1DM in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador was constructed using multiple sources. Pooled and unpooled monthly incidence data along with monthly UVB measurements were used to build a time series transfer function model. The model was used to predict the future incidence of T1DM based on previous monthly trends, and these predictions were compared with actual measured incidences. RESULTS: A seasonal variation in pooled monthly incidence was observed. The transfer function model was able to reasonably predict the future incidence of T1DM based on previous observations and monthly UVB measurements. Tests of seasonality demonstrated a significant seasonal trend (p = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that erythemal UVB radiation may be temporally associated with the incidence of T1DM.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it