Time series analysis of ultraviolet B radiation and type 1 diabetes in Newfoundland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) has been previously been associated with decreased levels of vitamin D. This study investigates the temporal association between average daily ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance and T1DM in Newfoundland. METHODS: A complete list of patients diagnosed with T1DM in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador was constructed using multiple sources. Pooled and unpooled monthly incidence data along with monthly UVB measurements were used to build a time series transfer function model. The model was used to predict the future incidence of T1DM based on previous monthly trends, and these predictions were compared with actual measured incidences. RESULTS: A seasonal variation in pooled monthly incidence was observed. The transfer function model was able to reasonably predict the future incidence of T1DM based on previous observations and monthly UVB measurements. Tests of seasonality demonstrated a significant seasonal trend (p = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that erythemal UVB radiation may be temporally associated with the incidence of T1DM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".