Fossil leaf economics quantified: calibration, Eocene case study, and implications
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Leaf mass per area (M A ) is a central ecological trait that is intercorrelated with leaf life span, photosynthetic rate, nutrient concentration, and palatability to herbivores. These coordinated variables form a globally convergent leaf economics spectrum, which represents a general continuum running from rapid resource acquisition to maximized resource retention. Leaf economics are little studied in ancient ecosystems because they cannot be directly measured from leaf fossils. Here we use a large extant data set (65 sites; 667 species-site pairs) to develop a new, easily measured scaling relationship between petiole width and leaf mass, normalized for leaf area; this enables M A estimation for fossil leaves from petiole width and leaf area, two variables that are commonly measurable in leaf compression floras. The calibration data are restricted to woody angiosperms exclusive of monocots, but a preliminary data set (25 species) suggests that broad-leaved gymnosperms exhibit a similar scaling. Application to two well-studied, classic Eocene floras demonstrates that M A can be quantified in fossil assemblages. First, our results are consistent with predictions from paleobotanical and paleoclimatic studies of these floras. We found exclusively low-M A species from Republic (Washington, U.S.A., 49 Ma), a humid, warm-temperate flora with a strong deciduous component among the angiosperms, and a wide M A range in a seasonally dry, warm-temperate flora from the Green River Formation at Bonanza (Utah, U.S.A., 47 Ma), presumed to comprise a mix of short and long leaf life spans. Second, reconstructed M A in the fossil species is negatively correlated with levels of insect herbivory, whether measured as the proportion of leaves with insect damage, the proportion of leaf area removed by herbivores, or the diversity of insect-damage morphotypes. These correlations are consistent with herbivory observations in extant floras and they reflect fundamental trade-offs in plant-herbivore associations. Our results indicate that several key aspects of plant and plant-animal ecology can now be quantified in the fossil record and demonstrate that herbivory has helped shape the evolution of leaf structure for millions of years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".