Cancer risk to First Nations’ people from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons near in-situ bitumen extraction in Cold Lake, Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Alberta oil sands are an important economic resource in Canada, but there is growing concern over the environmental and health effects as a result of contaminant releases and exposures. Recent studies have shown a temporal and spatial trend of increased polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in sediments and snowpack near the Athabasca oil sands operations (i.e., open pit mines), but thus far similar studies have not been done for the Cold Lake region where steam assisted gravity drainage (in situ) extraction is performed. METHODS: Many PAHs are known mutagenic carcinogens, and this study measured soil and atmospheric concentrations of PAHs in the Cold Lake region to assess the excess lifetime cancer risk posed to the First Nations' inhabitants of the region. Using both deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods, excess lifetime cancer risks were calculated for exposures from inhalation or inadvertent soil ingestion. RESULTS: The mean excess cancer risk for First Nations' people through ingestion who engage in traditional wilderness activities in the Cold Lake region was 0.02 new cases per 100,000 with an upper 95% risk level of 0.07 cases per 100,000. Exposure to PAHs via inhalation revealed a maximum excess lifetime cancer risk of less than 0.1 cases per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Excess lifetime risk values below 1 case per 100,000 is generally considered negligible, thus our analyses did not demonstrate any significant increases in cancer risks associated with PAH exposures for First Nations people inhabiting the Cold Lake region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".