Sensitivity Analysis of POMDP Value Functions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In sequential decision making under uncertainty, as in many other modeling endeavors, researchers observe a dynamical system and collect data measuring its behavior over time. These data are often used to build models that explain relationships between the measured variables, and are eventually used for planning and control purposes. However, these measurements cannot always be exact, systems can change over time, and discovering these facts or fixing these problems is not always feasible. Therefore it is important to formally describe the degree to which the model can tolerate noise, in order to keep near optimal behavior. The problem of finding tolerance bounds has been the focus of many studies for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) due to their usefulness in practical applications. In this paper, we consider Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), which is a more realistic extension of MDPs with a wider scope of applications. We address two types of perturbations in POMDP model parameters, namely additive and multiplicative, and provide theoretical bounds for the impact of these changes in the value function. Experimental results are provided to illustrate our POMDP perturbation analysis in practice.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it