Test set bias affects reproducibility of gene signatures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
MOTIVATION: Prior to applying genomic predictors to clinical samples, the genomic data must be properly normalized to ensure that the test set data are comparable to the data upon which the predictor was trained. The most effective normalization methods depend on data from multiple patients. From a biomedical perspective, this implies that predictions for a single patient may change depending on which other patient samples they are normalized with. This test set bias will occur when any cross-sample normalization is used before clinical prediction. RESULTS: We demonstrate that results from existing gene signatures which rely on normalizing test data may be irreproducible when the patient population changes composition or size using a set of curated, publicly available breast cancer microarray experiments. As an alternative, we examine the use of gene signatures that rely on ranks from the data and show why signatures using rank-based features can avoid test set bias while maintaining highly accurate classification, even across platforms. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code, data and instructions necessary to reproduce our entire analysis is available at https://github.com/prpatil/testsetbias.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.081 | 0.323 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".