Holocene Earthquake Records from the Cascadia Subduction Zone and Northern San Andreas Fault Based on Precise Dating of Offshore Turbidites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
▪ Abstract We present preliminary evidence for a ∼10,000-year earthquake record from two major fault systems based on sediment cores collected along the continental margins of western North America. New stratigraphic evidence from Cascadia demonstrates that 13 earthquakes ruptured the entire margin from Vancouver Island to at least the California border since the eruption of the Mazama ash 7700 years ago. The 13 events above this prominent stratigraphic marker have an average repeat time of 600 years, and the youngest event ∼300 years ago coincides with the coastal record. We also extend the record of past earthquakes to the base of the Holocene (at least 9800 years ago), during which 18 events correlate along the same region. The sequence of Holocene events in Cascadia appears to contain a repeating pattern of events, a tantalizing first look at what may be the long-term behavior of a major fault system. The northern California margin cores show a cyclic record of turbidite beds that may represent Holocene earthquakes on the northern segment of the San Andreas Fault. Preliminary results are in reasonably good agreement with onshore paleoseismic data that indicate an age for the penultimate event in the mid-1600s at several sites and the most likely age for the third event of ∼AD 1300.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".