Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. A stochastic rainfall model, obtained as the superposition of independent Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (NSRP), is proposed to provide a flexible parameterisation and general procedure for modelling rainfall. The methodology is illustrated using hourly data from Auckland, New Zealand, where the model is fitted to data collected for each calendar month over the period: 1966–1998. For data taken over the months April to August, two independent superposed NSRP processes are fitted, which may correspond to the existence of mixtures of convective and stratiform storm types for these months. The special case of the superposition of an independent NSRP process and a Poisson rectangular pulses process fits the data for January to March, whilst the original NSRP model (i.e. without superposition) fits the data for September to November. A simulation study verifies that the model performs well with respect to the distribution of annual totals, the proportion of dry periods, and extreme values. Keywords: stochastic processes; point processes; rainfall time series; Poisson cluster models
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".