Effect of cyclic and declining food supply on great grey owls in boreal Sweden
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study of 35 years of data, we examine the short-term (cyclic) and long-term relationship between breeding success of great grey owls ( Strix nebulosa Forster, 1772) and their food supply (bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus (Schreber, 1780)), grey-sided voles ( Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sundevall, 1846)), and field voles ( Microtus agrestis (L., 1761))) in northern Sweden. Annual number of owl nests showed a 3 year cyclicity, which as predicted, corresponded to the length of the vole cycle in the region. Mean annual brood size also fluctuated and was positively dependent on the vole supply during the same spring. In this region, there has also been a decline in vole numbers in recent decades, from high-amplitude cycles in the 1970s to subsequent low-amplitude cycles. Correspondingly, and as predicted, mean annual brood size of the owls also declined, although only during the third years of the vole cycle when vole supply in spring and brood size of the owls is at its highest level in high-amplitude cycles. We predict that in the long run the vole decline, associated with increasingly milder winters, and the reduction of the brood size of the owls, especially in years of high owl breeding success, will have serious implications for the population of great grey owls in Scandinavia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".