An applied framework for uncertainty treatment and key challenges in hydrological and hydraulic modelingThis article is one of a selection of papers published in this Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Within the larger domain of risk or environmental assessment, uncertainty treatment is gaining growing interest in the fields of hydrological and hydraulic modeling. A generic approach to quantitative uncertainty is suggested, putting together the applicable decision-making framework and associated probabilistic formulations involving uncertainty modeling (possibly through an inverse approach), uncertainty propagation, and the ranking of importance or sensitivity analysis. Accordingly, a number of generic statistical, physical, and numerical methods could be more largely disseminated in the water domain. Two axes of particular potential interest are outlined: the tricky choice of differentiating according to the epistemological nature of the uncertainty, with considerable impact on the formulation of the risk criterion and the associated level of complexity; the challenges posed by uncertainty modeling in the context of data scarcity, and the corresponding calibration and inverse probabilistic techniques, bound to be developed to best value hydro-monitoring and data acquisition systems under uncertainty.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.015 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".