Statistical characterization of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present the first multievent study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near‐Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground‐based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along‐arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near‐Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave‐like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wave number with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ ≈ 1700–2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9–12 R E . We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the Cross‐Field Current Instability and the Shear Flow Ballooning Instability. We conclude that, although the Cross‐Field Current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wave numbers indicates that the Shear Flow Ballooning Instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".