The Cross-Validated Adaptive Signature Design
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Many anticancer therapies benefit only a subset of treated patients and may be overlooked by the traditional broad eligibility approach to design phase III clinical trials. New biotechnologies such as microarrays can be used to identify the patients that are most likely to benefit from anticancer therapies. However, due to the high-dimensional nature of the genomic data, developing a reliable classifier by the time the definitive phase III trail is designed may not be feasible. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Previously, Freidlin and Simon (Clinical Cancer Research, 2005) introduced the adaptive signature design that combines a prospective development of a sensitive patient classifier and a properly powered test for overall effect in a single pivotal trial. In this article, we propose a cross-validation extension of the adaptive signature design that optimizes the efficiency of both the classifier development and the validation components of the design. RESULTS: The new design is evaluated through simulations and is applied to data from a randomized breast cancer trial. CONCLUSION: The cross-validation approach is shown to considerably improve the performance of the adaptive signature design. We also describe approaches to the estimation of the treatment effect for the identified sensitive subpopulation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.042 | 0.054 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".