Numerical assessment of potential impacts of hydraulically fractured <scp>B</scp>owland <scp>S</scp>hale on overlying aquifers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Natural gas extracted from hydraulically fractured shale formations potentially has a big impact on the global energy landscape. However, there are concerns of potential environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing of the shale formations, particularly those related to water quality. To evaluate the potential impact of hydraulically fractured shale on overlying aquifers, we conduct realizations of numerical modeling simulations to assess fluid flow and chloride transport from a synthetic Bowland Shale over a period of 11,000 years. The synthetic fractured shale was represented by a three‐dimensional discrete fracture model that was developed by using the data from a Bowland Shale gas exploration in Lancashire, UK. Chloride mass exchange between fractures and the rock matrix was fully accounted for in the model. The assessment was carried out to investigate fluid and chloride mass fluxes before, during, and after hydraulic fracturing of the Bowland Shale. Impacts of the upward fracture height and aperture, as well as hydraulic conductivity of the multilayered bedrock system, are also included this assessment. This modeling revealed that the hydraulically fractured Bowland Shale is unlikely to pose a risk to its overlying groundwater quality when the induced fracture aperture is ≤200 µm. With the fracture aperture ≥1000 µm, the upward chloride flux becomes very sensitive to the upward fracture height growth and hydraulic conductivity of the multilayered bedrock system. In the extremely unlikely event of the upward fracture growth directly connecting the shale formation to the overlying Sherwood Sandstone aquifer with the fracture aperture ≥1000 µm, the upward chloride mass flux could potentially pose risks to the overlying aquifer in 100 years. The model study also revealed that the upward mass flux is significantly intercepted by the horizontal mass flux within a high permeable layer between the Bowland Shale and its overlying aquifers, reducing further upward flux toward the overlying aquifers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".