Temporal dynamics within a contemporary latitudinal diversity gradient
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Poleward declines in species diversity [latitudinal diversity gradients (LDG)] remain among the oldest and most widespread of macroecological patterns. However, their contemporary dynamics remain largely unexplored even though changing ecological conditions, including global change, may modify LDG and their respective ecosystems. Here, we examine temporal variation within a temperate Northwest Atlantic LDG using 31 years of annual fisheries-independent surveys and explore its dynamics in relation to a dominant climate signal [the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)] that varies interannually and alters the latitudinal gradient of Northwest Atlantic continental shelf bottom water temperatures. We found that the slopes of the annual LDG vary dramatically due to changes in geographic distributions of 100+ species, variations that are concealed within the cumulative, static LDG. These changes are strongly associated with changes in NAO sign and strength. This is the first illustration of temporal dynamics in a contemporary LDG and the first demonstration of the speed at which local environmental variations can alter an LDG. Our findings underscore the need to investigate factors that modify LDG separately from those that contribute to their origins.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".