Latent Conditional Individual-Level Models for Infectious Disease Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Individual-level models (ILMs) have previously been used to model the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases. These models can incorporate individual-level covariate information, to account for population heterogeneity. However, incomplete or unreliable data are a common problem in infectious disease modeling, and models that are explicitly dependent on such information may not be robust to these inherent uncertainties. In this investigation, we assess an adaptation to a spatial ILM that incorporates a latent grouping structure based on some trait heterogeneous in the population. The resulting latent conditional ILM is then only dependent upon a discrete latent grouping variable, rather than precise covariate information. The posterior predictive ability of this proposed model is tested through a simulation study, in which the model is fitted to epidemic data simulated from a true model that utilizes explicit covariate information. In addition, the posterior predictive ability of the proposed ILM is also compared to that of an ILM that assumes population homogeneity. The application of these models to data from the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic is also explored. This study demonstrates that the use of a discrete latent grouping variable can be an effective alternative to utilizing covariate information, particularly when such information may be unreliable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".