Tide‐surge interaction off the east coast of Canada and northeastern United States
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sea level observations and a dynamical model are used to investigate tide‐surge interaction in the coastal waters off the east coast of Canada and northern USA. The study is motivated in part by the need to improve operational forecasts of total water level and coastal flooding. Two statistical methods are used to search for evidence of tide‐surge interaction in hourly sea level records from 23 coastal locations. The methods are based on comparison of the statistical properties of the sea level residuals (observed sea level minus tide) occurring at different stages of the tidal cycle. While recognizing the limitations of such an approach, it is concluded that tide‐surge interaction does occur in the Northumberland Strait which is located in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Results for the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy are less conclusive. A dynamical model is also used to quantify tide‐surge interaction in the study region and to identify its physical causes. Tide‐surge interaction in the model is strongest in the Northumberland Strait where the amplitude of the effect can reach 20 cm during and following strong storm surge events. This is large enough to be of practical significance in terms of flood forecasting. A series of sensitivity experiments with the model shows that the nonlinear parameterization of bottom stress is the principal contributor to tide‐surge interaction.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it