Predicting <i><scp>S</scp>irex noctilio</i> and <i><scp>S</scp>. nigricornis</i> emergence using degree days
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The study of temporal interactions between native insects and alien invaders can be facilitated by the ability to forecast adult emergence. We used field‐collected adult emergence data of Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera: Siricidae), a woodwasp native of Eurasia that has recently invaded northeastern North America, and Sirex nigricornis Fabricius, a woodwasp native to North America, to develop and test cumulative degree‐day (CDD) models. Five data sets were collected each in Ontario, Canada (S. noctilio) and Louisiana, USA (S. nigricornis) over 4 years; three data sets were used to develop models and two were used to test them. Males and females of each species were modelled separately. After testing several potential temperatures, chosen thresholds for CDD were 0 °C lower threshold and 25 °C upper threshold for both Sirex spp. We used a three‐parameter Gompertz growth function to model Sirex spp. emergence against CDD. Models predicted 10% emergence of S. noctilio in Ontario after 1 239 and 1 280 CDD, for males (start date = 1 April; R2 = 0.91) and females (start date = 1 April; R2 = 0.86), respectively. Models predicted 10% emergence of S. nigricornis in Louisiana after 3 980 and 5 016 CDD, for males (start date = 1 May; R2 = 0.83) and females (start date = 1 March; R2 = 0.73), respectively. Cumulative degree‐day models predicted 10 and 90% emergence of woodwasp populations with less error (1–13%) than they did 50% emergence (5–27%). For both Sirex spp., male emergence began a few days before and concluded at about the same time as that of females. In southern Ontario, models predict that S. noctilio adults will be in flight between 1 015 and 2 430 CDD (1 April start date for CDD; from early‐July until mid‐September). In Louisiana, models predict that S. nigricornis adults will be in flight between 3 854 and 4 700 CDD (1 May start date for CDD; from early‐October until late‐November).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".