Evidence for a Causal Link between Exposure to an Insecticide Formulation and Declines in Catch of Atlantic Salmon
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We report a case study showing relationships between historical insecticide applications (1973 to 1990) of an aminocarb formulation (Matacil® 1.8D ) containing 4-nonylphenol (4-NP) and catch data for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations. To address the hypothesis that Matacil® 1.8D caused reductions in Atlantic salmon catch, seven epidemiological criteria are used to evaluate causality between the stressor and effect. These criteria include: strength of association; consistency of association; specificity of association; time order; biological gradient; experimental support; and biological plausibility. We conclude that the general weight-of-evidence supporting the seven epidemiological criteria is consistent with a causal relationship between declines in salmon catch and Matacil® 1.8D exposure during parr-smolt transformation (PST). If the effects exerted by 4-NP are due to its activity as a weak estrogen, then hormonal activity stemming from other sources (e.g., domestic sewage, agricultural, industrial) might influence present day salmon populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".