AN EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY-BASED ASSESSMENT OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Abstract To date, climate change policy has largely focused on the problem of designingmarket-based tools to encourag e efficient adjustments in the carbon intensity of the globaleconomy. However, participation of developing countries in future stages of the treatyprocess are likely to hinge on demonstrable equity and sustainability commitments. Amethod of evaluating the equity and sustainability implications of current climate changepolicy is offered in the paper, as well as an alternative policy scenario that is believed tobetter satisfy these criteria of global social and environmental performance. 1. Introduction The Conference of the Parties 1 (COP) process has promoted market-based policyinstruments as the primary means to facilitate cooperation in the reduction of greenhousegas (GHG) emissions and is now focused on establishing rules for the emerginginternational emissions market. Major operational uncertainties of the Kyoto Protocol 2 emissions targets and flexibility mechanisms were largely resolved with the COP-7Marrakech Accord (COP-7). The COP process may rightly claim success in realizing a treaty of targets andcommitments to lower the release of one of the most ubiquitous chemicals associated withhuman activity. But it is not clear if activity under the auspices of the treaty will in factreduce emissions. Further, there is a reasonable basis for concern that the treaty may shiftthe burden of action for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions to countries with little or noresponsibility for the problem. The absence of a penalty for withdrawal by the world’slargest GHG emitter – the U.S. – likewise raises doubt about the efficacy of the treaty.Below we offer an assessment of the possibl e sustainability and equity implicationsof the treaty under certain assumptions (also described below). While he UNFCCCcontains language pledging an interest in equity and sustainability, these criteria are notgiven operational definition in the framework. This is not surprising since the researchcommunity has found it difficult to realize consensus on both criteria. Our strategy is toadopt a per capita entitlements approach to the question of equity (while also recognizingthe need for “common but differential responsibilities”) and to utilize an IPCC-basedestimate of mitigation action necessary to achieve relative climate stability. Ourmethodology leads us to conclude that the Kyot o Protocol-Marrakech Accord is unlikely toimprove climate equity or sustainability. However, we also find that there are specific

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