Spatial variability of climate and land‐use effects on lakes of the northern Great Plains
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Evaluation of the effects of climate change and human activities on lakes requires improved understanding of how stressors interact and the degree to which individual sentinel lakes represent broad spatial patterns of ecosystem response to disturbance. We surveyed modern water chemistry (major ions, conductivity, salinity, lake volume) and sediments (algal pigments, stable isotopes) in 21 lakes that surround Humboldt Lake, Saskatchewan, site of a 2,000‐yr climate reconstruction, to quantify spatial synchrony (S, the mean among‐lake correlation coefficient) of prairie lake response to climate variability, land use, and their interactions. Whole‐lake mass balances of total dissolved substances constructed at each site revealed that evaporation of water controlled seasonal changes in salt content only in years with dry summers (2003), leading to widespread spatial coherence of ecosystems (S = 0.78). In contrast, variations in hydrologic inputs (precipitation, groundwater) and solute fluxes regulated salt balances of lakes during years with wet summers (2004, 2005) and substantially reduced lake synchrony (S = 0.13‐0.58). Furthermore, >25% of sites exhibited increased nitrogen influx (as d15N) and cyanobacterial production (as fossil pigments) between ca. 1920 and 2003, with particularly strong effects of land use recorded for northeastern sites, where evaporative forcing was greatest. Finally, principal component and canonical ordinations with redundancy analysis both explained ~50% of the variance in lake sensitivity to climate and land use and revealed that the effects of climate and land use interacted strongly, but that the unique effects of each factor remained identifiable in modern lake surveys.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".