Wave forcing in the stratosphere under doubled‐CO<sub>2</sub> conditions in a 100‐year coupled chemistry‐climate model study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The impact of doubling atmospheric CO2 on the resolved‐wave forcing of the stratospheric flow, and thus on the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC), is investigated with 100‐year timeslice simulations using a chemistry‐climate model, the IGCM‐FASTOC, coupled to a mixed‐layer slab ocean. The Arctic lower stratosphere in winter warms by up to 4 K, with associated weakening of the polar vortex and enhancement of the BDC. This change is related to a significant increase in the wave forcing near the vortex core starting in January, followed by an increased wave forcing at the lower edge of the polar vortex in February. Maximum wave forcing is found both to occur earlier in the winter and to be distributed over a longer period of time in the 2 × CO2 climate. The sensitivity to surface conditions is studied by repeating the CO2‐doubling experiments with prescribed interannually varying and fixed annual cycle monthly mean surface temperatures. In the absence of interannual variability, the BDC response is strongly attenuated. With interannual variability, the monthly mean prescribed surface temperatures lead to a similar dynamical response in the stratosphere as found with the interactive surface but with reduced magnitude.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".