Alcohol intake, hypertension development and mortality in black South Africans
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Excessive alcohol intake is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and predicts cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We determined which alcohol marker (self-reported alcohol intake, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) or percentage carbohydrate deficient transferrin (%CDT)) relates best with mortality and predicts hypertension development over five years in black South Africans. DESIGN: This was a longitudinal study as part of the PURE (Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology) study in the North West Province, South Africa. METHOD: We included 2010 participants and followed 1471 participants. Over five years, 230 deaths occurred, of which 66 were cardiovascular-related. At enrolment, participants completed questionnaires on alcohol intake (yes, for former and current use; no, for alcohol never used). We measured blood pressure, collected blood samples and measured GGT and %CDT. RESULTS: When comparing hazard ratios (HRs) of self-report, GGT and %CDT, we found that only GGT predicted cardiovascular (HR = 2.76 (1.49-5.12)) and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.47 (1.75-3.47)) and hypertension development ((HR = 1.31 (1.06-1.62)). Participants self-reporting yes for alcohol intake had a 30% increased risk of developing hypertension (HR = 1.30 (1.07-1.60)) but not an increased risk for mortality. When adding both GGT and self-report in the prediction model for hypertension, only self-reporting of alcohol was significant (HR = 1.24 (1.01-1.53)). The alcohol marker, %CDT, did not show any significant association with mortality or hypertension development. CONCLUSION: GGT independently predicted cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, as well as hypertension development in black South Africans. Despite non-specificity to excessive alcohol consumption, GGT may be a useful general marker for hypertension development and mortality, also due to its significant association with self-reported alcohol intake.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it