A Prospective Study of Duration of Smoking Cessation and Colorectal Cancer Risk by Epigenetics-related Tumor Classification
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The effect of duration of cigarette smoking cessation on colorectal cancer risk by molecular subtypes remains unclear. Using duplication-method Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses, we examined associations between duration of smoking cessation and colorectal cancer risk according to status of CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), microsatellite instability, v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B1 (BRAF) mutation, or DNA methyltransferase-3B (DNMT3B) expression. Follow-up of 134,204 individuals in 2 US nationwide prospective cohorts (Nurses' Health Study (1980-2008) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2008)) resulted in 1,260 incident rectal and colon cancers with available molecular data. Compared with current smoking, 10-19, 20-39, and ≥40 years of smoking cessation were associated with a lower risk of CIMP-high colorectal cancer, with multivariate hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 0.53 (0.29, 0.95), 0.52 (0.32, 0.85), and 0.50 (0.27, 0.94), respectively (Ptrend = 0.001), but not with the risk of CIMP-low/CIMP-negative cancer (Ptrend = 0.25) (Pheterogeneity = 0.02, between CIMP-high and CIMP-low/CIMP-negative cancer risks). Differential associations between smoking cessation and cancer risks by microsatellite instability (Pheterogeneity = 0.02), DNMT3B expression (Pheterogeneity = 0.03), and BRAF (Pheterogeneity = 0.10) status appeared to be driven by the associations of CIMP-high cancer with microsatellite instability-high, DNMT3B-positive, and BRAF-mutated cancers. These molecular pathological epidemiology data suggest a protective effect of smoking cessation on a DNA methylation-related carcinogenesis pathway leading to CIMP-high colorectal cancer.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it