LIFE-HISTORY IMPLICATIONS OF LARGE-SCALE SPATIAL VARIATION IN ADULT SURVIVAL OF BLACK BRANT (BRANTA BERNICLA NIGRICANS)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We used capture–recapture methods to estimate adult survival rates for adult female Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter “brant”) from three colonies in Alaska, two on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and one on Alaska's Arctic coast. Costs of migration and reproductive effort varied among those colonies, enabling us to examine variation in survival in relation to variation in these other variables. We used the Barker model in program MARK to estimate true annual survival for brant from the three colonies. Models allowing for spatial variation in survival were among the most parsimonious models but were indistinguishable from a model with no spatial variation. Point estimates of annual survival were slightly higher for brant from the Arctic (0.90 ± 0.036) than for brant from either Tutakoke River (0.85 ± 0.004) or Kokechik Bay (0.86 ± 0.011). Thus, our survival estimates do not support a hypothesis that the cost of longer migrations or harvest experienced by brant from the Arctic reduced their annual survival relative to brant from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Spatial variation in survival provides weak support for life-history theory because brant from the region with lower reproductive investment had slightly higher survival.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".