Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. We present simulations of the 20th century Arctic temperature anomaly from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The new model couples together an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, a land-vegetation model and terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle. It simulates well the observed 20th century Arctic temperature variability that includes the early and late 20th century warming periods and the intervening 1940–1970 period of substantial cooling. The addition of the land-vegetation model and the terrestrial and oceanic interactive carbon cycle to the coupled atmosphere-ocean model improves the agreement with observations from 1900–1970, however, it increases the overestimate of the post 1970 warming. In contrast the older generation coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models Canadian CanCM3 and NCAR/LANL CCSM3, used in the IPCC 2007 climate change assessment report, overestimate the rate of the 20th century Arctic warming by factor of two to three and they are unable to reproduce the observed 20th century Arctic climate variability.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".