Economic contraction, alcohol intoxication and suicide: analysis of the National Violent Death Reporting System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Although there is a large and growing body of evidence concerning the impact of contracting economies on suicide mortality risk, far less is known about the role alcohol consumption plays in the complex relationship between economic conditions and suicide. The aims were to compare the postmortem alcohol intoxication rates among male and female suicide decedents before (2005-2007), during (2008-2009) and after (2010-2011) the economic contraction in the USA. METHODS: Data from the restricted National Violent Death Reporting System (2005-2011) for male and female suicide decedents aged 20 years and older were analysed by Poisson regression analysis to test whether there was significant change in the fractions of suicide decedents who were acutely intoxicated at the time of death (defined as blood alcohol content ≥0.08 g/dL) prior, during and after the downturn. RESULTS: The fraction of all suicide decedents with alcohol intoxication increased by 7% after the onset of the recession from 22.2% in 2005-2007 to 23.9% in 2008-2011. Compared with the years prior to the recession, male suicide decedents showed a 1.09-fold increased risk of alcohol intoxication within the first 2 years of the recession. Surprisingly, there was evidence of a lag effect among female suicide decedents, who had a 1.14-fold (95% CI 1.02 to 1.27) increased risk of intoxication in 2010-2011 compared with 2005-2007. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that acute alcohol intoxication in suicide interacts with economic conditions, becoming more prevalent during contractions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".