Estimating Potential Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Populations Using Ash Inventory Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest native to Asia, was identified in June 2002 as the cause of widespread ash (Fraxinus spp.), mortality in southeastern Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Localized populations of A. planipennis have since been found across lower Michigan and in areas of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, and Ontario. Officials working to contain A. planipennis and managers of forestlands near A. planipennis infestations must be able to compare alternative strategies to allocate limited funds efficiently and effectively. Empirical data from a total of 148 green ash, Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh., and white ash, Fraxinus americana L., trees were used to develop models to estimate surface area of the trunk and branches by using tree diameter at breast height (dbh). Data collected from 71 additional F. pennsylvanica and F. americana trees killed by A. planipennis showed that on average, 88.9 +/- 4.6 beetles developed and emerged per m2 of surface area. Models were applied to ash inventory data collected at two outlier sites to estimate potential production of A. planipennis beetles at each site. Large trees of merchantable size (dbh > or = 26 cm) accounted for roughly 6% of all ash trees at the two sites, but they could have contributed 55-65% of the total A. planipennis production at both sites. In contrast, 75- 80% of the ash trees at the outlier sites were < or =13 cm dbh, but these small trees could have contributed only < or =12% of the potential A. planipennis production at both sites. Our results, in combination with inventory data, can be used by regulatory officials and resource managers to estimate potential A. planipennis production and to compare options for reducing A. planipennis density and slowing the rate of spread for any area of interest.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".