Statistical Analysis of the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali Earthquake Aftershock Sequence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study the scaling properties of the aftershock sequence of the 2002 M w 7.9 Denali earthquake. The sequence exhibits nontrivial scaling behavior in magnitude, aftershock decay rates, and aftershock inter-occurrence times. In particular we observe a marked variability in the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) exponent, the b -value, in space, between early and late times after the mainshock and over different magnitude ranges. We find strong indications that certain aspects of this variability might be ascribed to the occurrence of some of the aftershocks on and around a supershear rupture associated with this event. Particularly, we observe a statistically higher b -value for the aftershocks that occurred in the zone surrounding the supershear rupture. We further outline a method to obtain an average b -value, consistent with the theory and statistical properties of the data. We find a significant difference between the magnitude of the largest aftershock and the mainshock. This is analyzed and discussed using the modified Bath’s law. It is observed that the aftershock decay rate can be approximated by the modified Omori law. The distribution of inter-occurrence times is studied and we show that it can be explained in terms of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process through time. We further observe that the rescaled inter-occurrence time distributions for various magnitude thresholds collapse into a universal functional form which indicates that the aftershock sequence exhibits self-similarity in both magnitude and time. In particular, the statistical features of the aftershock sequence show that the rupture process or the preconditions that lead to it may influence aftershock statistics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".