Population delineation and wintering ground influence on vital rates of white-winged scoters
Bibliographic record
Abstract
North American populations of white-winged scoters (Melanitta fusca deglandi) have declined markedly over the past several decades. The causes for decline are uncertain, but likely involve a complexity of events occurring on wintering and breeding areas. To gain insight into potential cross-seasonal effects, I delineated Atlantic and Pacific wintering scoter populations and linked them to a shared breeding area using stable isotope analysis of carbon (δC) and nitrogen (δN) ratios in feathers. By applying this methodology to a marked breeding population at Redberry Lake, Saskatchewan, I assigned females to putative wintering areas and determined: (1) population structure; (2) the extent of winter site philopatry; and, (3) differences in vital rates and other variates in relation to winter origin. Discriminant function analysis of isotopic ratios in feather samples from known wintering locations resulted in classification probabilities of 96% (n = 149) for Pacific and 78% (n = 32) for Atlantic wintering scoters. Using this methodology, I determined that the Redberry Lake breeding population is comprised of approximately 75% Pacific and 25% Atlantic wintering birds, and its members exhibit high degrees of winter region philopatry based on the classification of successive recaptures over three field seasons. Annual variations in population structure, as well as differences in nest initiation dates and blood contaminant loads in relation to winter area suggest seasonal interactions may influence survival and reproductive success of this population. To gain insight into potential seasonal interactions, I examined nest success and female survival in relation to winter area. No significant differences in nest success in relation to winter area were found, but nests that failed before mid-incubation were not sampled. Adult female survival rate for 2000-2004 was estimated as 0.85, with no significant difference detected between wintering areas. This study demonstrated that it is important to link breeding and wintering areas to better understand the factors influencing population dynamics and to effectively address conservation issues.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".