On the Translation of a Treatment's Effect on Disease Progression Into an Effect on Overall Survival
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There are many examples of treatments for cancer that show a large and statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) but fail to show a benefit in overall survival (OS). One recent example that has received considerable attention involves bevacizumab (Avastin) for the treatment of breast cancer. While it seems logical that slowing the rate of progression of a fatal disease would translate into an increase in survival, it is not clear what relative magnitudes of these two effects one should expect. One potential model for the translation of a benefit on disease progression into an OS benefit assumes that patients transition from a low-risk state (pre-progression) into a high-risk state (post-progression), and that the only impact of the treatment is to alter the rate of this transition. In this paper we describe this model and present quantitative results, using an assumption of constant hazards both pre-progression and post-progression. We find that an effect on progression translates into an effect on survival of a smaller magnitude, and that two key factors influence that relationship: the magnitude of the difference between the hazard rate for death in the pre- and post-progression states, and the duration of follow-up.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.029 | 0.395 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".