Alcohol consumption and liver cirrhosis mortality with and without mention of alcohol—the case of Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To analyse post-war variations in per capita alcohol consumption in relation to gender-specific liver cirrhosis mortality in Canadian provinces and to assess the extent to which alcohol bears a different relation to cirrhosis deaths with mention of alcohol (alcoholic cirrhosis) compared to cirrhosis deaths without mention of alcohol (non-alcoholic cirrhosis). DATA AND METHOD: Annual liver cirrhosis mortality rates by 5-year age groups were converted into gender-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates. Outcome measures included total cirrhosis-the conventional measure of liver cirrhosis--alcoholic cirrhosis and non-alcoholic cirrhosis. Per capita alcohol consumption was measured by alcohol sales and weighted with a 10-year distributed lag model. A graphical analysis was used to examine the regional relationship and the Box-Jenkins technique for time-series analysis was used to estimate the temporal relationship. FINDINGS: Geographical variations in alcohol consumption corresponded to variations in total liver cirrhosis and particularly alcoholic cirrhosis, whereas non-alcoholic cirrhosis rates were not associated geographically with alcohol consumption. In general, for all provinces, time-series analyses revealed positive and statistically significant effects of changes in alcohol consumption on cirrhosis mortality. In Canada at large, a 1-litre increase in per capita consumption was associated with a 17% increase in male total cirrhosis rates and a 13% increase in female total cirrhosis rates. Alcohol consumption had a stronger impact on alcoholic cirrhosis, which increased by fully 30% per litre increase in alcohol per capita for men and women. Although the effect on the non-alcoholic cirrhosis rate was weaker (12% for men and 7% for women) it was nevertheless statistically significant and suggests that a large proportion of these deaths may actually be alcohol-related. CONCLUSIONS: Some well-established findings in alcohol research were confirmed by the Canadian experience: per capita alcohol consumption is related closely to death rates from liver cirrhosis and alcohol-related deaths tend to be under-reported in mortality statistics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".