A Comparison of Static and Dynamic Assessment of Sexual Offender Risk and Need in a Treatment Context
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The authors investigated the efficacy of static versus dynamic approaches to risk assessment and the validity of the Risk Principle through comparing treatment changes made by high- versus lower-risk offenders. The investigations were carried out using a sample of 321 treated sex offenders followed up for an average 10 years postrelease. Risk was assessed using the Static 99, and treatment change was assessed using the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version. Actuarially high-risk/ low-change offenders had significantly higher rates of sexual recidivism than similarly high-risk offenders who had demonstrated greater treatment changes. The Static 99 predicted sexual recidivism well among sex offenders with smaller treatment change but demonstrated weaker prediction among offenders with greater treatment change, likely owing, in part, to the static nature of the risk predictors. Implications regarding the dynamic nature of risk and potential utility of incorporating treatment change—related information into sex offender risk assessments are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".