Modelling the health benefits and economic implications of implanting dual-chamber vs. single-chamber ventricular pacemakers in the UK
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To estimate the consequences of managing bradycardia due to sinoatrial node disease or atrioventricular block with dual-chamber vs. single-chamber ventricular pacemakers. METHODS AND RESULTS: A discrete-event simulation was conducted to predict outcomes over 5 years. Patients could develop post-operative complications, clinically relevant pacemaker syndrome leading to replacement of single-chamber with dual-chamber, atrial fibrillation (AF; which if chronic might require anticoagulants) or stroke. Survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), complications, and associated direct medical costs were estimated (2003 British Pounds pounds sterling). Identical patients were simulated after receiving a single-chamber device or a more expensive dual-chamber pacemaker. Probabilities of conditions were obtained from clinical trials. Benefits were discounted at 1.5% and costs at 6%. Post-operative complications increased from 6.4% with single-chamber to 7.7% with dual-chamber but AF decreased (22 vs. 18%) as did clinically relevant pacemaker symptoms (16.8 vs. 0%). Approximately 4300 pounds sterling were accrued per patient over 5 years. Additional health benefits with dual-chamber are achieved at a mean net cost of 43 pounds sterling per patient, leading to 0.09 QALY with a cost-effectiveness ratio of 477 pounds sterling/QALY. CONCLUSION: Implanting the costlier device increases the cost of the initial operation; however, this is expected to be offset by a reduction in costs associated with re-operations and AF.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".