A test of ecological succession hypotheses using 55‐year time‐series data for 361 boreal forest stands
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Aim There has been much work on succession over many decades, but succession fundamentals are still debated because of the reliance on chronosequences and dendrochronological reconstruction, both of which are problematic approaches. Here we use time‐series data to test four hypotheses that lie at the heart of successional theory: (1) the neighbourhood effect hypothesis – tree species abundance is time dependent; (2) the density‐dependence hypothesis – a rare species is more favoured over time; (3) the resource ratio hypothesis – species that can grow at the lowest resource level tend to dominate resource limited sites through succession; and (4) the intermediate disturbance hypothesis – intermediate disturbances increase the abundance of rare species. Location Central boreal forest in Canada (47°50′–50°10′ N; 80°10′–85°50′ W). Methods We used repeated measurements from sequential aerial photography and ground surveys for 361 fire‐origin stands that were measured over ac. 55‐year period. Results Shade‐intolerantPinus banksianadecreased, tolerantThuja occidentalisincreased, intolerantPopulusspp. andBetula papyriferadisplayed a U‐shaped trend, and intermediate‐tolerantPiceaspp. and tolerantAbies balsameadid not change with time since fire, showing evidence of negative, positive, or neutral neighbourhood effects. Species either persisted for longer or increased more in non‐conspecific stands, and had higher increases in abundance when associated with species of contrasting shade tolerance, supporting the density‐dependence hypothesis and indicating shade‐tolerance complementarity as a mechanism for coexistence. Resource‐poor soils favoured those species capable of tolerating limited resources, whereas rich soils permitted invasion and promoted mixtures, supporting the resource ratio hypothesis. Intermediate disturbances increased the invasibility of rare species. Main conclusions Contrary to previous studies where time since a stand‐replacing disturbance is the sole predictor for succession, our study shows that time alone is either an insufficient predictor or is irrelevant to species dynamics in the boreal forest. Rather, density dependence, site resource and intermediate disturbances are key mechanisms in species dynamics and coexistence over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".